Anchorage Bus Restructuring (And Why Staten Islanders Should Care)

So a restructuring of the Anchorage bus system went into effect on October 23rd, 2017.

Why Should Staten Islanders Care?

Basically, they consolidated the routes with the idea of providing 15 minute headways on their busiest routes (similar to other cities such as Houston that had a major restructuring of their bus system). In my opinion, they went too far in cutting service to the lower-ridership areas.

In a report they released, they seemed to be torn between 2 options, an 80% plan and a 100% plan (referring to the percentage of resources put into higher ridership routes). The majority of people seemed to be in favor of the 80% plan, but it looks like they bumped the percentage up to 90% despite public opinion (I saw a map that said something like "90%" in he URL). The options start on page 65.

The general trend nationwide lately has been for agencies to redesign their networks to offer more frequent service on the busiest routes. They've done it in Cincinnati, Houston, and Omaha just to name a few cities. In some cases, they've gotten additional funding (I have to double-check, but I believe Cincinnati & Omaha gave their agencies more money to run an expanded system. I know Houston didn't, and Anchorage didn't). I haven't analyzed Houston's system (it's a lot larger than Anchorage's system), but from what I understand, they redirected a lot of their bus routes to feed into their light rail system, so they were able to put more resources into the frequent routes without reducing coverage). For those of you who don't know, the MTA tries to be cost-neutral in its service proposals, and from what the project manager said, this is no exception.

The express system restructuring proposed on Staten Island does follow the general trend of consolidating the routes into a frequent network. They didn't really reduce the coverage of the system, because on the Staten Island end, pretty much all the areas that had express service before still have it, and on the Manhattan end, there are technically still local buses and subway routes that cover the areas that had express bus service taken away from them, even in cases like the West Street corridor where the routes are significantly longer, which will hopefully be remedied thanks to public outcry). However, this does get me thinking about what this means for the local network. After all this fighting I have done to make sure isolated areas like Grymes Hill & Cottage Hill get their weekend service back, I don't want to see it brushed away under the guise of consolidation into a frequent network.

The thing is that Staten Island routes are still busier than routes in most of these cities. The busiest route in Anchorage (the old #45) carried around 2,600 riders a day. All of the full-time routes out of St. George carry more than that. So all of the areas that would be considered "coverage" areas on Staten Island would be considered high-ridership areas in other cities. Additionally, Staten Island isn't a city of its own, but rather a borough of another city, and on top of that, we still have the crutch of infrequent (and slow, but that's another topic) ferry service. So the most frequent network in the world won't help riders using the ferry to get to and from Manhattan. Additionally, a lot of service is consolidated onto major streets already, due to the topography and development patterns on the island.

Long story short, one of the major issues on Staten Island is the lack of coverage in areas throughout the island, and I hope they aren't blindly following the lead of other, smaller cities throughout the country. Hopefully this is just a rant about nothing and the local study gives us a comprehensive and usable system that we deserve.

Now, for those of you who are interested, here's my analysis of the Anchorage plan.....

What Specifically Is Wrong With the Anchorage Plan?

I'm going to start by saying that one of the things I don't like about the plan is that the people who designed it violated some of their own principles in the design of this network. The general idea of the plan was to consolidate the resources towards the busiest routes, to provide "Less Waiting" and "More Hours". Alright, that's a logical principle to follow. So then how come on Saturdays, they essentially cut the last round-trip of the #10 (old #3), #20 (old #45), #40 (old #7), and last outbound trip of the #30 (old #15)? I understand that they added some service in the morning, but I would've much rather they add less morning service in exchange for keeping the system end time the same. (They could've had the buses run every 60 minutes from 8-9AM or 8-10AM like they had before, and used the extra hours to keep the last trips the same, or even add a trip an hour beyond the original span)

In terms of the corridors/neighborhoods that should've had some type of service retained, these are the major ones
* Old Seward Highway
* 36th Avenue
* Turnagain
* South Anchorage (more than just rush hour service)
* Eagle River

In terms of routes, I'm going to start by saying that the worst decision was to eliminate the #60 bus north of Old Seward Highway. That route is a mile away from the #35 on Artic and a mile from the #55 on Lake Otis Parkway....assuming there's a direct road between them and you don't have to first detour to that road (e.g. Dowling Road). According to page 38 of the report, ridership the #9 & #60 between the Dimond Center & Downtown was very similar (as a matter of fact, the #9 had 30 minute service added in July 2008 (page 25), so had it been the #60 that saw the increased service, it would likely seen the increased ridership, and it might be the #9 that was cut.

Since the whole selling point of the new system is better frequency, the new system really limits your options between Downtown & Dimond Center (two major hubs), by leaving only one direct route (the #9). Granted, the #2 & #7 (especially the 7A through the airport) had much longer travel times, but they were options nonetheless. The #60 was only a couple of minutes slower than the #9 (which means that with a slightly slower driver, or some slight delay such as a wheelchair passenger, it's pretty much a wash between the two routes).

On the #92, the reason why they run 2 minibuses per trip as opposed to one is because people were worried about being left behind. Instead of spreading them out every half hour (which would boost ridership), they did the bare minimum and essentially cut one trip in each direction from the old schedule (the 4:40PM and 6:22AM trips).  Also, they sneakily cut the Eagle River Connect service, which means midday passengers to/from Eagle River are essentially stranded.

There's one final issue with this plan is that, according to pages 3-4 of the Ride Guide (7-8 of the PDF), there's no free transfers between routes. You can purchase a day pass for round-trip travel, but that discourages single trips (e.g. If somebody got a lift from somebody to work, but needs to use the bus system to get back home, that $4 fare will be a turn-off for that one-time trip, and will be encouragement for them to use some alternative route). Though I will say, I do like the fact that they offer an annual pass on the routes.

The Good Aspects of the Plan

The system is aimed towards concentrating service in the denser portions of the municipality. The busiest route in the old system (the #45) had issues with overcrowding and leaving people behind... which is especially unacceptable on one hour headways . With four full-sized buses an hour for most of the day on the #20, and two minibuses per hour on the #21 supplementing it, there's definitely more capacity available for bus riders. (On top of that, the #21 & #31 provide a quick link from the Northway Mall & Penland Park towards Downtown, as opposed to the old system where the #8, #15, and #45 all meandered their way towards Downtown). It looks like they made some type of attempt to coordinate the two routes to provide approximate 15 minute headways to/from Downtown (though it gets a little messed up due to the #21 having uneven headways, likely due to interlining it with another route). Between UAA/Providence Hospital and Downtown, riders have frequent, direct service on both the #10 & #20, as opposed to having some of that frequency going towards meandering routes like the #13 & #36 under the old system.

The areas with the highest percentage of autoless households (the "bread and butter" riders of the transit system), include Downtown, Mountain View, Fairview, Penland Park, Government Hill, Muldoon, and to a lesser extent, Midtown and Spenard. There's development plans for the Northern Lights & Spenard Road corridors, which would be supported by frequent transit. Those areas generally see better service under the new plan compared to the old system (with the major exception being in the Taku-Campbell neighborhood, which lost the #60). You could argue that consolidating the service from 36th Avenue in Midtown onto Tudor Road & Northern Lights also represented a service cut for a decent amount of riders.

Additionally, routes are generally straighter compared to the way they used to run, as they don't meander down neighborhood streets as much (this can especially be seen on the old #45 vs. the #20 in the Russian Jack Park area, and the overall routing of the old #8 vs. the #31).

How I Would Improve The Plan

So at the very least, north of the Dimond Center, I would keep the hourly service on the #60 (or some equivalent route covering the northern part of Old Seward, since they renumbered the #9 to #35 to fit the scheme of having the standard routes end with "5"). Perhaps some savings can be realized through interlining it with the #35 at both terminals).

I would also keep at least hourly service on 36th Avenue, by way of extending the #55 to Downtown Anchorage via the following routing: Turn east on Tudor Road, serve the Alaska Native Medical Center & Providence Hospital/UAA, then continue on 36th Avenue to Spenard Road, and follow the #40 route to Downtown.

For service to Turnagain Heights, I would extend the #65 straight up Wisconsin Street to Northern Lights Blvd, and then take the #40 route to Downtown. Also, I would have the #65 take the old 7J detour up Raspberry Road, as it serves more people than staying on Sand Lake Road, without adding much travel time (it also helps some of the people who live closer to Northwood Street).

On the #92, I don't mind truncating the route to Downtown (as the #10 & #20 provide frequent service to the UAA/Providence Hospital, and the #20 & #25 provide frequent service to the ANMC). I do like the fact that there's one reverse-peak trip out to Eagle River in the morning, and returning from Eagle River in the evening (though to be fair, I remember seeing an old schedule of the #102 that said that passengers were permitted to stay on after the last stop to return to the Muldoon Transit Center). At the very least, I would at least keep that feature, and allow passengers to stay on until the Muldoon Transit Center as the bus deadheads back to the garage.

For South Anchorage, I would at the very least have the #91 run more than just 2 trips each way (though I will be fair, and say that those trips do seem perfectly placed. You have one that can get you into Downtown around 8am, and one around 9am, with return trips leaving around 5pm and 6pm. Not sure why the bus only run every 60 minutes, as opposed to every 30 minutes, as there is a 33 minute layover at the Dimond Center, while a round-trip only takes 27 minutes. Or they could have it run up to Tudor Road to at least cover the isolated part of Old Seward and give passengers a connection to the #25 and the destinations on that route in both directions). Come to think about it, while it would be a bit awkward, a shuttle from Old Seward & Tudor to Old Seward & Oceanview would be a bit awkward-looking (with Dimond Center in the middle of the route), but it would still provide the necessary coverage, and be enough to replace the coverage lost by the old #60. Such a route should run 7 days a week, similar to the other shuttle routes (#11, #21, and #31)

I understand People Mover has a budget to balance, and if the plan must be cost-neutral, then there should be service reduced somewhere else. The Debarr Road & Spenard Road corridors weren't in the original frequent network plan. Spenard Road has a transit-oriented development plan that's being pushed, so I think that (along with the fact that the route serves the airport) is a main reason why it's on the frequent network. In order to obtain the funds necessary to keep Old Seward Highway, 36th Avenue, and Turnagain Heights covered, I would look into reducing the frequencies on the #10, #30 & #40 routes (the old #45, which became the #20 had twice the ridership of the old #3, so I would leave it as-is). With the #55 & #65 routed onto Spenard Road, crowding heading into Downtown shouldn't be an issue if the #40 were reduced to every 30 minutes (especially since the #65 serves Spenard proper as well), especially if the trips are coordinated with the #40 so that the northern portion of Spenard Road sees 15 minute headways. The #10 and #30 I would reduce to every 20 minutes (the #10 is busier, but the #30 is a quick route from end to end). Keep in mind that under the old system, all of those routes ran every 30 minutes. The #55 extension would require 1 extra bus for hourly service (and that may be cutting it a bit close during rush hour) and the #65 extension would require 1 extra bus (but there would be plenty of slack in the schedule in terms of layover). In other words, if you interline the #55 & #65, you would be able to cover both the 36th Avenue corridor and Turnagain Heights with 2 extra buses. It looks like the #40 requires 4 buses for 15 minute headways (though it looks like they interlined it with another route to give themselves some more cushioning on the layover times), so between that, and possibly a slight reduction at certain times to either the #10 or #30, that should be enough to cover those 2 areas. Keep in mind, I wouldn't touch the late-evening service to the airport on the #40. 

....And With More Money....

I remember reading an old study that suggested extending some #45G short-turns to Tikahtnu Commons (or at least the VA Hospital). Since the #21 is basically the same thing as the old 45G (except it runs minibuses), perhaps it can run via Bragaw-Parsons-Lane-Mountain View Drive, then get on Glenn Highway at Boniface Parkway, and get off at Muldoon Road. This would provide a quick way to get there from Downtown (right now, the #25 takes the long way around. You can transfer to the #30 or #31, but the transfer takes time to make. Also, it's very circuitous to reach Mountain View itself (you have to either take the #20 down to the #25, or do a lot of walking to/from the #31). The only issue is, budget-wise, you might need more than just minibuses to handle the passenger loads. The runtime would be about 25 minutes, which would allow for a 5 minute layover and 30 minute headways if 2 buses were used.

One idea I had was to run this route out to Eagle River (with a full-sized bus) to replace the #92 (ideally, with 7 day service). Service within the Anchorage Bowl (meaning, west of the VA Hospital) would run every 30 minutes all day, every day, and service to Eagle River would be every 30 minutes during rush hour, and every 60 minutes other times. That way, it provides Eagle River riders with a full-time connection to the #25 to get to East Anchorage, as well as a one-seat ride to Downtown Anchorage. (Keep in mind that "all-day, every day" refers to the general span of the system. The Anchorage system starts shutting down around 11pm on weekdays, and 6-7pm on the weekends. I would run it longer on the weekends, but not 24/7 yet.

Another idea I had was to split up the #10 route. I would have alternate buses run straight down Northern Lights Blvd without serving Providence Hospital/UAA, and alternate buses terminating there, from both directions. In addition, I would have the #55 run every 30 minutes via the route I described above, and coordinate it with the #10 to provide 15 minute crosstown headways towards Midtown & Downtown. (On top of that, there's still the #20 if your destination is Downtown, and the #20 is actually a bit quicker than the #10). For those in a hurry heading towards the Muldoon Transit Center, they can take the #20 to Northern Lights & Bragaw and catch any eastbound bus (one originating from Downtown, or one originating from Providence Hospital), and the same thing heading westbound in reverse. Granted, the #30 already provides the most direct route from Downtown to Northeast Anchorage and the Muldoon Transit Center, but this would provide a quicker option for those further south (also, the #30 doesn't serve Midtown like the #10 does). Not sure how the routes should be numbered, since they would be a combination of 30 minute headway routes (that should end with "5") that combine to offer 15 minute headways along their common trunk (which means the number should end in "0".

Additionally, I would also coordinate the #35 and #60 (or whatever that route is renamed to) to provide approximate 15 minute headways between the Dimond Center and Downtown. From the Dimond Center, I would have a circulator that covers both the old #60 route along John Road, and the old #2 route along Independence Drive). Service could depart the Dimond Center every 45 minutes, perhaps alternating between running clockwise & counterclockwise)

Additionally, since the #11 serves the dense Government Hill & Fairview areas, I would bump up the frequency to every 30 minutes. Fairview has the frequent #30 bus within walking distance of most able-bodied riders (either that, or at least the #31 for those in the northern portion of the neighborhood), but the #11 provides the only form of transit for Government Hill residents. Also, if the #11 were rerouted to run straight across 9th Avenue, it would result in a 15 minute combined headway for those living in the northern portion of the neighborhood looking to head Downtown (whether as a destination in and of itself, or to connect to another route). 9th Avenue is a 0.4 mile walk from 15th Avenue, and so somebody halfway down the middle would only have a 0.2 mile walk to get to a frequent route (and since the #15 runs down Cordova, people in the western section would have the option of catching the bus there). And frequency is especially good at attracting ridership if the trip is short (if somebody has to wait 30 minutes for a bus, to make a 1 mile trip that can be made in 20 minutes by walking, they'll likely just walk. If the bus runs every 15 minutes, they'll at least think twice). 

One final thing for People Mover to consider is that, since their depot is located around Tudor & Elmore (a few blocks south of the #20 terminal at the ANMC), I think there should be a few more trips that do a short-turn trip to/from their first/last stop (so some #10 buses that only run between Providence & Elmore and either the Muldoon Transit Center or Downtown, some #25 buses that run between the ANMC and either the Muldoon Transit Center or Downtown, and try to have more of the #20 trips run on and run off from the ANMC end). Additionally, some #15 buses can start/end at Alaska Regional Hospital, and deadhead via Lake Otis Parkway. The old schedule actually had a few #75 trips that did that (one of them only went to the Muldoon Transit Center, I guess to do a trip on another route). I'm for minimizing deadhead mileage wherever possible (whether it's in Anchorage, Staten Island or somewhere else in the world)

Express Bus Changes Coming to Staten Island

So there's been a lot of confusion regarding what the MTA plans for their express bus changes on Staten Island. It doesn't help that they haven't posted their updates on the Civic Connect website. In any case, here's the updated list of changes as per the most recent PDF released (which for some reason, they haven't posted on the website)

NOTES: 
All Downtown buses will run to Worth Street via Church Street/Broadway
All Midtown via FDR buses will run via 23rd Street & 5th/Madison Avenue to 57th Street
All Midtown via NJ buses will run via 34th Street & 5th/Madison Avenue to 57th Street

They are unsure about what they will do off-peak or reverse-peak. These changes only refer to rush hour, peak direction service. Also, they haven't actually assigned numbers to these routes, but I'm using the current numbers to give you an idea of the changes.

X1/X3 combined: ETC - Downtown via Hylan Blvd
X2 extended to Hylan & Richmond to provide southern Eltingville with Midtown via FDR service
X4/X8 combined: ETC - Downtown via Giffords Lane and Father Capodanno Blvd (no serving Armstrong & Leverett)
X5/7 combined: ETC - Midtown via Giffords Lane, Father Capodanno Blvd, and FDR Drive (similar to the X4/8 combo, the route will run straight up Giffords Lane). For service from Hylan & Richmond or Hylan & Armstrong to to Midtown via the FDR, take the extended X2. For Richmond Avenue passengers, make your way to/from the X21.
X9: Eliminated. Use X2, or X1/X3 combo
X10B: Eliminated. Use X11, X12, or X42
X11: Remains as-is.
X12: Cut to Downtown
X14: Cut to Downtown, and also bypasses all stops on Narrows Road. For Midtown service, use the X2, X30, or X42 depending on where you are. For Downtown service along Narrows Road, use the X15.
X15: Staten Island service remains as-is. Manhattan service runs to Worth Street via Church/Broadway instead of via the Downtown Loop.
X17A: Remains as-is.
X17J: Rerouted to Annadale Road with the X17A. For Arden Heights/Huguenot service, use the X23 or X24.
X19: Rerouted to run straight down Huguenot Avenue to Hylan Blvd, then straight down Hylan to Craig Avenue in Tottenville. So basically, Tottenville gains Downtown service, but Arden Avenue riders have to either walk to Huguenot Avenue or take the X24 to Huguenot Avenue and transfer to the X19.
X21: Remains the same on the Staten Island end, but should see a boost in service. In Manhattan, rerouted via 34th & 5th/Madison to 57th Street.
X22: Combined with the X23. Buses will run via Rossville Avenue, but then down Seguine/Foster (to cover the X23), then down Hylan to terminate at Craig Avenue.
X22A: That loop around Maguire to get onto the Richmond Parkway to reach the Outerbridge Park & Ride ate into a lot of the time savings, so buses will run straight down Bloomingdale Road, and then enter the West Shore Expressway at Bloomingdale Road, and then enter the West Shore Expressway. Buses will bypass Arthur Kill Road, but I'm not sure if they will stop in Travis. There would also be a lot more than 4 trips each way.
X23: Runs straight down Huguenot Avenue to Hylan Blvd. For Seguine Avenue/Foster Road service, use the X22. For Woodrow between Arden & Foster, walk to Foster, Huguenot, or Arden for Midtown service. For Woodrow east of Arden, walk to either the X17J, X21, or X24 on Annadale Road, Arthur Kill Road, or Arden Avenue respectively.
X24: Run straight down Arden Avenue to Hylan Blvd, then terminates at Hylan & Barclay.
X30: Cut back to Forest & Victory.
X31: Runs via NJ in both directions.
X42: Runs to Port Richmond instead of Mariners Harbor with the X12. If you're in Mariners Harbor, use the X30 for Midtown service (you might have to take the S40/48/98 if you're along South Avenue, especially in Arlington north of the train tracks). For those heading around 23rd Street, stay on the S48/98 until Richmond Avenue for the X42. There should be a lot more than 6 trips each way, though.

My thoughts:
They should definitely keep some service to West Street. They said they're definitely going to revisit that. All the West Street riders would have to walk to Church/Broadway (which adds time even if it's through an underground passageway. It's a passageway, not a teleportation device!). If they're going to be piling onto the Church/Broadway buses, you might as well run those buses to West Street if that's more convenient to where those riders need to go.

Not sure if there should be some service between Worth & 23rd. I'm leaning towards keeping some sort of service, but I can see their logic. The (1), (W), and (E) train all start in Lower Manhattan, so they have plenty of seats for riders coming off the express bus. The (R) generally isn't that crowded since a lot of riders get off in Brooklyn for the (D) and (N) trains to get to Midtown. For those who want to completely avoid the subway, the M55 runs up 6th Avenue, and down 5th Avenue/Broadway (the only thing is that it doesn't serve Union Square, since it takes 5th Avenue to 8th Street). Come to think about it, no local buses run north-south to Union Square. The M6/M7 used to back in the day, but long-story short between the 2010 service cuts, and making certain parts of Broadway narrower or pedestrian-only, north-south buses have been routed away from that part of Broadway.

The only thing is that you don't have the direct connection to the 6th Avenue subway line (the B/D/F/M). I'll get into my solution later on.

Water Street is losing the X8/14/15. From what I've seen on the X8, buses are fairly empty until around Wall Street. Can't really speak for X14/15 ridership in that area. Alternatives include the Downtown Connect shuttle bus (which apparently doesn't start until 10AM. Perhaps the MTA should put a little bit of funding in to have it run earlier), which starts at the South Street Seaport, as well as the M22 bus, which loops around City Hall and then goes across Frankfort Street (personally, when I needed to use this bus, I got off at Church & Vesey and walked up to Park Row & Beekman Street to catch it. But I was going to the Lower East Side. For places on Water Street, I would honestly just walk from Battery Place to South Ferry and catch the M15 from there. And yes, I know what you're thinking....if you have to walk to South Ferry, you might as well just take the ferry! There's also the BM "Downtown Loop" buses which I'll talk more about below.

For those of you who are worried about subway issues prolonging your commute, there is a website called SubwayTime that is similar to BusTime, but works for the subways. You just go to subwaytime.mta.info. You can see how far the next train is, and also if there's any delays (Delays are also posted under the "Service Status" section of the MTA.info website). So for example, I go to school at The City College of New York. I can either take the (1) to 137th Street or the (A) to 145th Street. I've done various options (get off at Bowling Green and take the 4/5 to Fulton for the A/C, get off at Bowling Green and walk up to the 1 and hop on the express between Chambers & 96th to save time, get off at Park Place where I have the option of the A/C or 2/3 and then continue my trip accordingly). So using SubwayTime, and the MTA website, I make my decision accordingly (i.e. If I see that the C train is coming, and the next A isn't for 15 minutes, I'll hop on until at least 59th Street for the D, if not all the way up to 145th Street).

Obviously, if there's a power outage in a major area like Downtown Brooklyn or Midtown Manhattan, then you have the issue of delays affecting a whole bunch of lines, but usually, there's at least one line that is running relatively normally. (I often see delays that affect the A/B/C/D/E/F/M but not the N/Q/R/W or vice versa, or just the 1/2/3, but usually not all at the same time, though there can be some spillover, as the more saavy riders switch over to the lines that are still running, and overcrowd those lines. In any case, as I mentioned, there's buses like the M55, or worse comes to worse, you get off and take a taxi/Uber. At least if you know of the delays, you know what options are available to you).

For those of you traveling outside of rush hour, I'll let you in on a little-known secret. Outside of rush hour, the BM1/2/3/4 run down 5th/Madison and 23rd, and then run down the FDR and serve Water Street in Lower Manhattan (similar to the present-day X14, but they end in East Midtown at 1st Avenue instead of West Midtown at 11th Avenue). So there was a period of time when I needed to travel home after a tutoring assignment around 23rd & 2nd. Since I finished around 7-8pm, I would take a BM bus (I think it was usually the BM3 that came first) from 23rd & 2nd over to Battery Place, and then walk over to the X17 and take that home. The key was that I would ask if they were stopping Downtown, or just running straight to Brooklyn (some of them bypass Downtown....during rush hour they're supposed to, but outside of rush hour, they're probably breaking the rules and doing what they want. If you want to take down the bus number and file a complaint, feel free). Anyway, the BM buses run infrequently and aren't too reliable, so I would use BusTime first to see if any bus is heading your way. You want to avoid the "Super Express" buses, since those run straight to Brooklyn. If it's not a "Super Express", it's supposed to stop Downtown, but like I said, some of those drivers go rogue and bypass it anyway.

Actually, during rush hour, if you want to go to the Downtown Loop along Water Street, you can actually transfer to a BM Downtown Loop bus at Battery Place. Something to consider...

How I Would Do Things Differently

So I would definitely at least keep the X10B and at least some combination of the X7/9 to cover the WFC. My logic is that the X10B is relatively easily accessible from most of the North Shore (if it doesn't stop in your immediate area, it's a quick drive or local bus ride to reach it). The X7/9 combo could be a route that runs the same as the X1 on Staten Island (so via Hylan & Richmond to the ETC, or maybe Giffords since that's where the X7 currently runs, though the old X6 used to run down Richmond). I would extend that route up Spring/6th northbound and Broadway/Houston westbound, but terminate it at 23rd Street. North of there, people have the Midtown buses (and if they want the 6th Avenue Line, they can get off at Waverly Place and take it).

Now, an interesting idea I heard from a bus operator is to run down 5th, but then take 23rd Street to the West Side Highway (an old pattern of the X10B had it do something similar, except it took 5th-23rd-7th-Houston-West). I have a 1993 map at home that shows that pattern. I forget what they did northbound. I think they took Spring to get from West to 6th, I have to double check). The advantage of that is that since it still bypasses most of Downtown, you can use that as the Midtown-Port Richmond route, and keep the X42 serving Mariners Harbor & Arlington. The disadvantage is that there would still be no service south of 23rd, so maybe if you add a stop at say, 7th & 14th, and another one at 7th & Houston it would work. The good thing is that you're on West Street north of Canal Street and the Holland Tunnel traffic (as opposed to 6th Avenue/Broadway).

In any case, I would also add another two Downtown routes from the South Shore. One which would be the Downtown version of the X24. Perhaps it could run to the World Financial Center, to give people on the South Shore service to another part of Downtown besides the Church/Broadway corridor. Or just run it up Church/Broadway, but there definitely needs to be some more Downtown service from the South Shore. I would also run a Downtown branch of the X22 (this would definitely run via Church/Broadway).

The thing is that geographically, Staten Island is physically closer to Downtown, so it makes no sense for a South Shore rider to take the subway uptown to catch their express bus (also, shorter distance = lower costs for the MTA to operate). Also, anecdotally, now that the HOV lane runs directly to the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel I've permanently switched my morning commute to the X17A to the subway, rather than the X17J to the subway. I do not trust that Lincoln Tunnel bus lane one bit. You have buses from the entire state of New Jersey all trying to get into one little lane, and then on the Manhattan end, buses and cars all have to merge onto Dyer Avenue for the 2 blocks to 34th (Port Authority buses have their own ramps to/from the tunnel). I would honestly have buses just take Dyer Avenue to 33rd Street, and then take that to 10th Avenue to reach 34th Street (or at least give bus operators the flexibility to do so. Right now it's considered going off-route, and if they get into an accident, they're screwed). I think the X30 route across 42nd might even be a little better for those "via NJ" buses.

In any case, for that reason, I would have the X31 continue its AM route to Manhattan via Brooklyn (it can even go via the FDR Drive if that's better than going up West Street).

Now off-peak, here's what I would do: I would run the following routes off-peak (as described above): The X1, X7, X11, X12, X17 (Downtown-only), and X22 Downtown branch, since that would be the main Downtown corridor during rush hour). I would have the X11 stop along Narrows Road off-peak so people around Targee Street/Richmond Road have some off-peak service. I would have the X22 Downtown branch run down South Avenue (so buses would get off the SIE at South Avenue, take South Avenue to the West Shore Expressway, and get off to serve Travis, then get back on and get off at Arthur Kill Road to serve the "Checkpoint", then take the service road to Bloomingdale Road. Off-peak and reverse-peak, you should be able to get some riders working at the business parks and hotels along South Avenue, which combined with riders in Travis, Arthur Kill Road and the South Shore should fill up the bus nicely.

Notice the X7 is the only route running to Midtown. As I mentioned before, Staten Island is physically closer to Downtown, so the service should be structured accordingly. The X5/7 have around 3500 riders as-is, so that's a busy route and can hold its own with Midtown riders.

The only Staten Island area that would lose off-peak service would be Port Richmond. Honestly, most riders in Port Richmond use the local buses, and the main reason the area sees as much express service as it does is because it's right by the Castleton Depot. Mariners Harbor being further out and having fewer options (the S44/94 doesn't go to Mariners Harbor for instance) should generate more ridership than Port Richmond.

If you noticed, in some of my other proposals, I had an S53 limited-stop branch (running via Narrows Road instead of Clove & McClean in Grasmere/South Beach). That would be able to be used as an alternate route for X14 riders looking to go to Midtown (to get to Hylan & Narrows to transfer to the X2). Or for that matter, save themselves $3.75 and stay on until Brooklyn and catch the (R) train to Manhattan. Also, I had a proposal to restructure the S55/56 on the South Shore (which would have the S55 run via Arthur Kill-Arden-Annadale and have the S56 run straight down Woodrow from Arthur Kill), so perhaps that should be implemented to allow X23 riders easier access to the other routes. In any case, the span should definitely be extended past 7PM!

Also, in the AM rush, I would have the X17A/X17J alternate between starting at Annadale Road and bypassing Marsh Avenue, and separate buses starting at Marsh Avenue & Windham Loop and continuing from there. Also, I would have the X31 start at Marsh & Windham regardless, as the X17J & X21 provide a quicker ride to Midtown from the Eltingville Transit Center. The Marsh Avenue bypass allows people from Annadale and the ETC to reach Manhattan a few minutes quicker. In the afternoon, all buses should run the combination route via Marsh Avenue and the ETC for simplicity's sake (this is similar to the BxM7 service pattern in Co-Op City where there's buses separate buses in the AM for all the sections, but just one route in the PM running throughout the neighborhood).

I hope you guys found this very helpful. Feel free to put questions and comment below (just remember, I don't work for the MTA, so I can't do anything about it directly).