My general argument centers on the fact that the current system that they have set up along Hylan is actually based on sound logic: Each main market in Manhattan has a route from the Hylan corridor that operates to Eltingville via Father Capodanno Blvd, and a route that operates to New Dorp via Hylan Blvd. So we have as follows:
* East Midtown (X2/X5)
* West Midtown (X7/X9)
* Downtown (X3/X4)
With this service pattern, the longer-distance route from Eltingville fills up with passengers, and then at Midland Avenue, turns off to travel the faster route via Father Capodanno Blvd, and then has a counterpart that starts in New Dorp and covers the northern portion of Hylan Blvd. In theory, this should result in relatively balanced loads and a more efficient use of the MTA's resources.
Notice I didn't include the X1 & X8 in that service pattern. The X1 is sort of the "parent route" of the whole Hylan Blvd express series. The X8 is there because the entire corridor has a sufficient volume of service and ridership that the MTA can provide direct service to the Water Street corridor without too much of a negative impact on Church Street/Broadway service. (So in other words, the X8 is an Eltingville-Downtown route that covers a slightly different market compared to the X4)
So the most straightforward plan would be to simply eliminate the X1 and use the resources to provide more service on the other Hylan routes. Now, you may be thinking "Eliminate the X1, that's the busiest express route on Staten Island". But notice that at the end of the day, the X1/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 are all on one schedule, so really, all the other Hylan routes are just variants of the X1.
Also, as part of this plan, the X3/4 would be rerouted to Worth Street as opposed to the World Financial Center (which is already covered by the X7/9 through a significantly faster route). The X1 takes the most inefficient route within Staten Island (Instead of running from Eltingville via Father Capodanno, it runs from Eltingville via Hylan Blvd). The only people it benefits are those from the Richmond Avenue corridor who want a direct ride to the West Street corridor or the Greenwich Village area (the alternative for those people is to take the S79 over to the X7, which I would consider reasonable). However, it's at the expense of service on the other routes (notice how infrequent the X3/4 are in the PM rush hour), and that volume of service does you no good if it's bunched up.
Little personal note: I used to tutor a client in the Midland Beach area, and to get there from school, I would take the subway to Lower Manhattan and then take the X1/3/4. The problem was, there were several times where I would wait 15-20 minutes in the middle of rush hour, and then all of a sudden, 3 X1s, an X3, and an X4 would all show up at once. The X3 & X4 would usually be on-time for their half-hourly departure, but the X1s were late (eventually, I tried getting off at Broadway/Lafayette and catching the X7/9, which was a little better).
So in any case, frequencies at the height of rush hour are as follows (little note: Headway refers to the time span between buses, while frequency refers to the buses within a given timespan. So headway and frequency are inversely related. A good route should have a high frequency/low headway).
BPH = Buses Per Hour (These frequencies are approximate, and taken at the height of rush hour from a quick glance at the schedule. Feel free to choose your precise time period of interest at a particular stop and count it yourself if you want to make a more detailed table out of it)
So the simple way would be to take the X1's current frequencies and divide them up among the X3, X4, X7, and X9. When starting the X7/9 at 23rd, both those trips, and definitely the X3/4 trips are shorter compared to the current X1 from Broadway & 23rd to Eltingville Therefore, the MTA will either save money, or be able to run more trips. (And notice, especially in the PM rush, the X1 has plenty of trips to go around).
I didn't do the exact calculations (Obviously, I'm writing this blog in my spare time), but I believe that with the resources saved from cutting back the X7/9 to 14th Street, combined with the savings resulting from dividing up those X1 short-turns more efficiently, there should be enough to provide a decent level of frequency along 5th/6th Avenue from both Father Capodanno & Hylan, while maintaining the X2/5 levels of service along Lexington/Madison Avenue. If not, at the very least, if they do insist on consolidating the service down 5th Avenue, then they should definitely keep service via both Father Capodanno and Hylan from the Greenwich Village corridor.
Long story short, it boils down to the fact that when dealing with busy routes such as those on Hylan, since the peak load point is always between Manhattan and Staten Island, it is best to divide up the riders in an efficient manner. Obviously starting from New Dorp is going to be cheaper/shorter than starting from Eltingville (even if the bus made a trip out of Manhattan and deadheaded back in for another trip, or vice versa in the morning, it's shorter/cheaper to deadhead from Tysens Lane up Hylan to the SIE as opposed to from the ETC up Richmond to the SIE). The savings from running via Father Capodanno vs. Hylan Blvd for the trips to Eltingville might not be as much, but when added up over routes as frequent as the Hylan ones, it adds up (especially if we're talking about premium time after 11+ hour spreads or after 8 hours of actual work).
As far as the MTA's argument that service levels on Hylan & Father Capodanno will remain similar to today's levels, that doesn't seem to make much sense (especially if the plan is going to be cost-neutral). It seems as if they're taking the savings from not running the X1 to 23rd Street, and using it to put more service on the most inefficient of the Hylan Blvd service patterns (Eltingville via Hylan). If Downtown service remains similar on Father Capodanno Blvd, that means that they are going to combine the X4 & X8 service levels into the SIM5. Granted, it's only about a half mile walk to reach Park Place from Battery Place (or a short subway ride), but at the same time, it doesn't seem reasonable to expect all X4 riders to switch to the SIM5 to warrant that service. The same with X7 riders: The SIM6 route via 5th/Madison does nothing for X7/9 riders seeking service to West Street & Greenwich Village. Maybe they're including the park-and-ride buses in those calculations, but those make a single stop in the middle of nowhere (as far as residences/businesses) on Father Capodanno, and don't serve the residential portions of Midland Beach & South Beach. So if that's the case, that likely means that the Hylan buses will likely be overcrowded, while the Father Capodanno buses have spare capacity.
Additionally, the obvious thing to consider is: Why is Hylan Blvd south of New Dorp getting double the frequency of the areas north of Midland? As you go further south, you start to have people driving down to the Eltingville Transit Center for routes like the X17, and the catchment area decreases (basically, Hylan Blvd is very close to the water at that point, so you're mostly getting people from the northern/western side of Hylan, whereas north of Midland Avenue, you have a dense neighborhood on both sides)
Another thing to consider is that as the routes get more and more frequent, the marginal advantage in frequency of an additional bus per hour decreases. For example, if you take 2 hourly routes and combine them to create a a route with 2 buses per hour (30 minute headways), you decrease the maximum wait by 30 minutes and the average wait by 15 minutes (assuming a uniform distribution of passenger arrivals). If you take 2 routes running every 30 minutes (2 buses per hour) and combine them to create a route running every 15 minutes (4 buses per hour), the maximum wait decreases by 15 minutes, and the average wait decreases by 7.5 minutes. You see the pattern? So if the MTA takes two routes that run every 8 minutes and combines them to create a route that runs every 4 minutes, the maximum wait decreases by 4 minutes, and the average wait decreases by 2 minutes. But if a passenger has to walk an extra 10 minutes to get that 2 minute average savings, there go those savings for that particular passenger. Of course, it's wonderful if you live directly on the corridor (which there definitely are people who will benefit), but not so great if you're on the corridor that lost service (I'm thinking of the X7 riders heading from Father Capodanno to West Street/Greenwich Village specifically).
Of course, at the end of the day, if the MTA released an idea of the schedules (it didn't have to release the exact times, but at least the start/end times and basic frequencies), we would have more to offer in terms of suggestions, and that's really the main thing that people need to get on them about.
I didn't do the exact calculations (Obviously, I'm writing this blog in my spare time), but I believe that with the resources saved from cutting back the X7/9 to 14th Street, combined with the savings resulting from dividing up those X1 short-turns more efficiently, there should be enough to provide a decent level of frequency along 5th/6th Avenue from both Father Capodanno & Hylan, while maintaining the X2/5 levels of service along Lexington/Madison Avenue. If not, at the very least, if they do insist on consolidating the service down 5th Avenue, then they should definitely keep service via both Father Capodanno and Hylan from the Greenwich Village corridor.
Long story short, it boils down to the fact that when dealing with busy routes such as those on Hylan, since the peak load point is always between Manhattan and Staten Island, it is best to divide up the riders in an efficient manner. Obviously starting from New Dorp is going to be cheaper/shorter than starting from Eltingville (even if the bus made a trip out of Manhattan and deadheaded back in for another trip, or vice versa in the morning, it's shorter/cheaper to deadhead from Tysens Lane up Hylan to the SIE as opposed to from the ETC up Richmond to the SIE). The savings from running via Father Capodanno vs. Hylan Blvd for the trips to Eltingville might not be as much, but when added up over routes as frequent as the Hylan ones, it adds up (especially if we're talking about premium time after 11+ hour spreads or after 8 hours of actual work).
As far as the MTA's argument that service levels on Hylan & Father Capodanno will remain similar to today's levels, that doesn't seem to make much sense (especially if the plan is going to be cost-neutral). It seems as if they're taking the savings from not running the X1 to 23rd Street, and using it to put more service on the most inefficient of the Hylan Blvd service patterns (Eltingville via Hylan). If Downtown service remains similar on Father Capodanno Blvd, that means that they are going to combine the X4 & X8 service levels into the SIM5. Granted, it's only about a half mile walk to reach Park Place from Battery Place (or a short subway ride), but at the same time, it doesn't seem reasonable to expect all X4 riders to switch to the SIM5 to warrant that service. The same with X7 riders: The SIM6 route via 5th/Madison does nothing for X7/9 riders seeking service to West Street & Greenwich Village. Maybe they're including the park-and-ride buses in those calculations, but those make a single stop in the middle of nowhere (as far as residences/businesses) on Father Capodanno, and don't serve the residential portions of Midland Beach & South Beach. So if that's the case, that likely means that the Hylan buses will likely be overcrowded, while the Father Capodanno buses have spare capacity.
Additionally, the obvious thing to consider is: Why is Hylan Blvd south of New Dorp getting double the frequency of the areas north of Midland? As you go further south, you start to have people driving down to the Eltingville Transit Center for routes like the X17, and the catchment area decreases (basically, Hylan Blvd is very close to the water at that point, so you're mostly getting people from the northern/western side of Hylan, whereas north of Midland Avenue, you have a dense neighborhood on both sides)
Another thing to consider is that as the routes get more and more frequent, the marginal advantage in frequency of an additional bus per hour decreases. For example, if you take 2 hourly routes and combine them to create a a route with 2 buses per hour (30 minute headways), you decrease the maximum wait by 30 minutes and the average wait by 15 minutes (assuming a uniform distribution of passenger arrivals). If you take 2 routes running every 30 minutes (2 buses per hour) and combine them to create a route running every 15 minutes (4 buses per hour), the maximum wait decreases by 15 minutes, and the average wait decreases by 7.5 minutes. You see the pattern? So if the MTA takes two routes that run every 8 minutes and combines them to create a route that runs every 4 minutes, the maximum wait decreases by 4 minutes, and the average wait decreases by 2 minutes. But if a passenger has to walk an extra 10 minutes to get that 2 minute average savings, there go those savings for that particular passenger. Of course, it's wonderful if you live directly on the corridor (which there definitely are people who will benefit), but not so great if you're on the corridor that lost service (I'm thinking of the X7 riders heading from Father Capodanno to West Street/Greenwich Village specifically).
Of course, at the end of the day, if the MTA released an idea of the schedules (it didn't have to release the exact times, but at least the start/end times and basic frequencies), we would have more to offer in terms of suggestions, and that's really the main thing that people need to get on them about.
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